Optomism

[naptownCr]

It seems that the general gist of opinion is that things are picking up.
I hope this is true for everyone.
I know that we have tripled sales in the past several months.
Any opinions on how long this will last?

[WarnerConstInc.]

Probably not too long.

[bconley]

Seven years, just like every other cycle.

[Silvertree]

Its tough out here, price is king and although I'm optimistic I feel we still have a long way to go for recovery.

[nEighter]

i think it is just ramping up right now..like this is the car starting to move..

[DavidC]

Being a true optimist I believe it will last forever.

I'm not too comfortable disagreeing with The Paul (every since I pissed him off with a comment on my FB page) but I don't think price is king. It has become much more important to the customer than before, I'll admit. But it's value that is king. Nobody is interested in spending more than they have to, but they do want to make sure what they spend is spent well. Savy clients understand that cheaper does not equate to better.

Like N8t, I think it is just getting moving right now. I don't think we will return to the way it was for quite some time though. We need to trim our sails and try to catch the wind better for awhile.

Good Luck
Dave

[Bodger]

I'm not seeing much change. And I don't just go by the lack of action from my pipeline of referrals that kept me earning for then strong years or so.

Lots of contractors out here have gone under completely, others have scaled back to one man shows and are competing for the handyman and maintenance work that's out there. Myself included. But I'm seeing more illegal looking dudes working than anyone who looks legit.
This is the first time in 15 years I've actually felt like I will need to go do something else for a while to make ends meet. I was optimistic last year, taking low paying jobs just to keep busy and earning. I had several projects in the pipe and thought 2009 would be the rough year, and we'd swim out inn 2010.

It's not looking like that will be the case. This year so far is worse. Like Paul said, price is king, and a lot of the potential clients I've spoken with are more concerned with saving money than getting things done right. Even to the point where they don't want to pull permits, and don't give a damn about licenses and insurance.

So, I'm over a year into my optimism and it's beginning to wane.

[naptownCr]

Saving money is what we sell.
It also helps that one has to be licensed in order for the HO to get the state grants.
the solar bus is one that has to be legit and above board. In the case of commercial we are also subject to Davis Bacon Act and are required to report on a bi weekly basis. This tends to keep the illegals and unlicensed out of the business.

[Bodger]

Saving money is what we sell.
It also helps that one has to be licensed in order for the HO to get the state grants.
the solar bus is one that has to be legit and above board. In the case of commercial we are also subject to Davis Bacon Act and are required to report on a bi weekly basis. This tends to keep the illegals and unlicensed out of the business.


The trades in SoCal are so overrun with unlicensed and undocumented illegals it's as if what they do is an accepted practice. And in fact, enforcement is so lax that it basically is accepted at this point.

[Bodger]

Saving money is what we sell.
It also helps that one has to be licensed in order for the HO to get the state grants.
the solar bus is one that has to be legit and above board. In the case of commercial we are also subject to Davis Bacon Act and are required to report on a bi weekly basis. This tends to keep the illegals and unlicensed out of the business.


You're subject to Davis-Bacon on commercial? Out here it only applies to public works projects as far as I know.

[naptownCr]

No anything going for a state grant is subject to the ARRA rules and commercial is subject to DBA.
We also have to comply with Federal Historical trust rules but that doesn't cone up often.
On public work we also have to comply with the Buy American portions.
Some municipalities and agency's have even more stringent rules than the feds. American made only with no exception for countries that have a trade agreement with the USA EXAMPLE Rheem solar tanks are made in Mexico by an American owned company, Are covered by NAFTA but are still not acceptable on some public projects. (We use Vaughn Tanks which are made in Massachussets FYI)

[Bodger]

No anything going for a state grant is subject to the ARRA rules and commercial is subject to DBA.
We also have to comply with Federal Historical trust rules but that doesn't cone up often.
On public work we also have to comply with the Buy American portions.
Some municipalities and agency's have even more stringent rules than the feds. American made only with no exception for countries that have a trade agreement with the USA EXAMPLE Rheem solar tanks are made in Mexico by an American owned company, Are covered by NAFTA but are still not acceptable on some public projects. (We use Vaughn Tanks which are made in Massachussets FYI)


Wow. That's a lot of regulation, and most of it good.

[naptownCr]

Wow. That's a lot of regulation, and most of it good.

When one sucks off the tit of the govt they set the rules for the suckling.

[nEighter]

:cry2:no biting?:curtain:

[naptownCr]

:cry2:no biting?:curtain:

That would be one on them!

[SLS-Construction]

I see some of the signs here, but I have seen quite a few "the phones are ringing again" to complete silence in our area (major tax return days?). How soon a certain area recovers depends a lot on how safe your customers feel about their investment being a good, safe or needed one. Overall I am pretty optimistic

Nationally I think we started hitting the next upswing, but there are going to be a few areas that are going to be struggling for a while longer. Are we going to hit the glory day numbers - some places will while most places will just have to be happy with a gentle uptick. Just my .02

[Bodger]

I'd settle for an uptick as long as it was sustained. I don't need to make a lot of money to get by.
In this SoCal market, it seems to be hit or miss and depends on who you're talking to. some contractors I speak with have a steady enough stream of business to stay viable, but most I know are pared down to one or two guys on the payroll and no big projects.

The exception seems to be those who were tied into the high income folks. Drive through Beverly Hills and you'll see a lot of remodeling going on. Not the case in the average neighborhood of $850K houses.

[nEighter]

$850K would buy you a nice lil pad here. You would have a damn nice place.

[Bodger]

$850K would buy you a nice lil pad here. You would have a damn nice place.

That kind of money would buy a lot of acreage back where I grew up.
Prolly buy every house on Fez's Roach Street too. :grin:

Places in my neighborhood are still listing and selling in the high 8's and 9's, some over a mil. Taking longer to sell though.

[orson]

I've seen a sustained major uptick in both referal leads and internet leads.

A lot of the stuff is small (2 to 5 day projects) but I've been able to price it at least break even or with a small net profit.

I have 2 leads for whole house remodels, one has a budget of 30k for a 1k SF house, major plaster repair, kitchen spruce up and bathroom gut; and the other has a 70k budget for a 2.5k SF house, top to bottom plaster/paint flooring with new kitchen and adding a bathroom with a tile shower on the second floor. Both RRP jobs of course.
:rolleyes3:

I did just get a promising major kitchen remodel lead I'm working.