2010 Winter make it or break it?

[Eieio]

I have been speaking to a lot of guys lately and this year is going to be make or break for a lot of them..

Most of them made it this far and you would think that is a good sign, but more and more have lost the their love of the industry and the desire to keep fighting.

I have had quite a few of them that just don't want to be bothered any more because its just to much of a dog fight..

I really think this year we will see quite a few guys calling it quits.

Winter time will be on us before we know it and as always that will be the true test..

I am trying to line a few projects up to start later in the year so they can give us something to do during the winter months, So far I have a few prospects but I keep estimating and advertising to keep the pipe line and potential jobs in sight.


What are you guys going to do, to get you through the winter?

[afkama]

What are you guys going to do, to get you through the winter?

We'll make it through, even if I have guys doing charity work gratis.

We have enough cash reserves to weather it out.

Bottom line is that a lot of contractors are going to have to find a different line of work.
That was a hell of a bubble and we are not going to see that quantity of work again in our lifetimes. Even when things pick up it won't be at the level that it was.

Until things shake out it's going to be a dogfight over every job.

[Blue]

Akfma said it right. You have to have the capital to make it through some winters. Some are just as busy as the summer. You just never know.


The remod business was the first to come out of it but the new home construction is as dead as a door nail. We are seeing alot of these guys lettering their trucks and saturating the market.

As always if you can figure out how to get your name in front of potential clients without spending a fortune and can cut all the fat, then you will make it. Many are too knuckleheaded to lower their pricing to Mexican wages, but if it keeps the lights on one more winter then to me its worth it.

[Eieio]

Agreed on having the Capital and a few of these guys do. I think its an issue of do you keep fighting the good fight..

Me personally, this is all I have ever done. This is all I will ever do.. I can and will never have a 9-5.

But why spend you savings or cushion to make it through the winter and have to start the fight all over again next year.. Especially guys in their 40,50 60's,?

The fun is gone right now.. I probably had one project maybe two this year that were anything to write home about as far as creativity or design.

I am remodeling boxes with basic materials, nothing fancy. I miss the good old days at least the days of having some creative work to do.

[neolitic]

I'm too stupid for anything else.

[nEighter]

I think things could get better, but we need the illegal immigration laws to get tougher, and for the aliens to be sent back down south.

Time will tell Rory.

[Blue]

The fun is gone right now.. I probably had one project maybe two this year that were anything to write home about as far as creativity or design.


Oh the fun has been gone for years. We are now spoiled from the banks throwing money at any H/O that could sign their name. Thats over. Now the bulk of jobs are the old and tired bathroom or the scratched cabinets. Haul the junk out and bolt up some shinier junk.

You want fun? Take up skydiving in between your tub replacements.

[dan-o]

While the market has contracted (oh, a pun), I've found the customer has become more discriminating. Money has more value now and, beyond the low end, that appears to have given the advantage to the more professional companies.

At least that's what I'm seeing here; less painting work getting done but the professional outfits are booming while its crickets for the ladder strapped to a fiero crowd. My vendor sees the same trend, his sales are up but with fewer clients.

[fez-head]

While the market has contracted (oh, a pun), I've found the customer has become more discriminating. Money has more value now and, beyond the low end, that appears to have given the advantage to the more professional companies.

At least that's what I'm seeing here; less painting work getting done but the professional outfits are booming while its crickets for the ladder strapped to a fiero crowd. My vendor sees the same trend, his sales are up but with fewer clients.


Same here. Lowballers are dropping like flys and STILL advertising "Best Work - Lowest Rates" Homeowners are wising up but the wham-bam-thank-you-mam "contractors" just don't get it. :smash:

[Bodger]

I was earning well until early '09 because I was still on a big job that had started nearly two years prior to that. When that finished, I didn't have the usual next project to start up on, the bottom had fallen out of the boom, and I knew I would have to weather a downturn.

So I took anything that came my way, drove 150 miles round trip daily to build a deck up in Kern County, built some bookcases and cabinets, and got lucky with a decent commercial job later in the year.

Now, I'm 18 months into the downturn and things are worse. I'm getting handyman work here and there, but it's not going to be enough to call it staying in business.

I don't really have much interest in doing anything else at this point. I've done a lot of different things to make money, but running my little company for the past ten years or so was the most fun, the most satisfying, and the most consistently profitable thing I've ever done.

I'll keep changing light bulbs and tightening hinges for now, and see what happens in the next six months. Then decide if it's worth it to continue. We don't really have a winter out here, so that's not much of a factor.

[nEighter]

This thread has had me thinking about the biz all night.

[Eieio]

This thread has had me thinking about the biz all night.


Well I don't want winter to come and guys are stuck with no way to turn.

Figure I might as well put it out there and see who wants to talk about it.. I am sure there are lots of contractors in this boat..

If no one brings it up it won't get discussed.

[neolitic]

............ We don't really have a winter out here, so that's not much of a factor.

It's good that you have noticed that. http://i634.photobucket.com/albums/uu61/neoliticman/smilie/smiliethumbsup.gif

[Bodger]

Well I don't want winter to come and guys are stuck with no way to turn.

Figure I might as well put it out there and see who wants to talk about it.. I am sure there are lots of contractors in this boat..

If no one brings it up it won't get discussed.


Lots of contractors out here are gone under. Leveraged up during the boom and then couldn't make it through even 6 months of thin times. Too much debt maintenance. Too big a house for themselves, too much equipment and vehicles.

[DavidC]

We've already suffered two absolutely dead winters in a row. I'm hoping there won't be a threepeat. I'll still be in business mainly because I'm old enough that there isn't much else to turn to. Just might be homeless before it's over though.

Finally some leads came in and we've been losing jobs over pricing. The last 2 roof leads seemed plenty sold on us. Our prospects went for a loan and the bankers told them that was a lot for a roof and sent them shopping for more estimates.

I have been giving thought to taking a part time job to ease the strain.

Good Luck
Dave

[Blue]

Finally some leads came in and we've been losing jobs over pricing. The last 2 roof leads seemed plenty sold on us. Our prospects went for a loan and the bankers told them that was a lot for a roof and sent them shopping for more estimates.

I have been giving thought to taking a part time job to ease the strain.

Good Luck
Dave

You can't lower any more. Make 20% instead of 50%?? Beats zero right?

[DavidC]

That's just it, materials are up, insurance is constant ( at least so far). And I'm old, I ain't getting on a roof for lunch money.

Good Luck
Dave

[nEighter]

What separates this board from any other board is that we don't have anything to boast about. Painttalk or Contractor talk there are too many people beating their chests and acting like a business is ALWAYS 100% of the time successful and if you are not getting a large % of the bids then you need to get out of the business cause you are A.) not selling yourself right, or B.) Not a good business man and need to be working for someone else.

Love the topic, and the thread Rory. We all need to be thinking about this. I went in on 2 houses today and the second of which I told the guy (26yrs old w/ great job and house falling apart..) alot of what we all talk about. I told him what to watch out for in contractors just looking for his money.. etc. etc.. I hope he decides to go with me, would be cool to start him out with a good company/work done to his house.

[kevjob]

Realize that if you are still in business after the assault on our industry from insurance to lawyers to the thieves and liars at the EPA, our elected govt officials giving natural gas drillers the right to contaminate millions of gallons of drinking water and getting away with it legally. So pat youself on the back for staying alive in this big dog eats everbody times. :surrender::surrender:

[Blue]

That's just it, materials are up, insurance is constant ( at least so far). And I'm old, I ain't getting on a roof for lunch money.

Good Luck
Dave
If you can't use your tools its going to be very slim out there for you. It doesn't sound like you want to work any more. You have a ton of excuses though. You are the type of guy I bury year after year. I couldn't imagine building with a cell phone right now. You have to swing the hammer and be available 14 hours per day ready to pounce on a job with tools in hand. The gravy has been spilt.

[fez-head]

If you can't use your tools its going to be very slim out there for you. It doesn't sound like you want to work any more. You have a ton of excuses though. You are the type of guy I bury year after year. I couldn't imagine building with a cell phone right now. You have to swing the hammer and be available 14 hours per day ready to pounce on a job with tools in hand. The gravy has been spilt.

Screw that.

Due to my advanced marketing and customer service skills - I still got my gravy.

EDIT: We do easy jobs for good pay (gravy in my mind) but my gravy was never really the type where I was getting rich, so I may have misunderstood what your gravy was all about. I can say that we have been and are maintaining our position as well as slowly growing. Marketing and blow-your-socks-off customer service are key - no matter how bad it gets you have to maintain those two things.

[orson]

If you can't use your tools its going to be very slim out there for you. It doesn't sound like you want to work any more. You have a ton of excuses though. You are the type of guy I bury year after year. I couldn't imagine building with a cell phone right now. You have to swing the hammer and be available 14 hours per day ready to pounce on a job with tools in hand. The gravy has been spilt.

So what exactly are you advocating, going out and selling jobs below your cost?

Been there done that, and I will leave it to the Mexicans.

[Blue]

Screw that.

Due to my advanced marketing and customer service skills - I still got my gravy.

Good fer you. Point is alot don't. I hear alot of crybabying about howmuch this cost and how much I got underbid and how expensive a 2x4 is and the lead dust is awful, and the humdity. Oh my, I can't make it.

Take note. If you are like Uncle Fez and have a succesful shop and system ALREADY in place then you will bury the posers too. If not you have to get creative and yes maybe re-learn how to use a hammer.

[Blue]

So what exactly are you advocating, going out and selling jobs below your cost?

Been there done that, and I will leave it to the Mexicans.

If part of your cost is your new van sell it. If part of your costs are 3000 sq. ft shop then shut it down. Get rid of the fat and price competitive. If not go into another field.

[fez-head]

If part of your cost is your new van sell it. If part of your costs are 3000 sq. ft shop then shut it down. Get rid of the fat and price competitive. If not go into another field.

Brock Patterson - Giving you the same financial advice your Grandfather would.... only keeping his teeth in.

[DavidC]

If you can't use your tools its going to be very slim out there for you. It doesn't sound like you want to work any more. You have a ton of excuses though. You are the type of guy I bury year after year. I couldn't imagine building with a cell phone right now. You have to swing the hammer and be available 14 hours per day ready to pounce on a job with tools in hand. The gravy has been spilt.

Talk about taking a short statement to the extreme and out of context. Pretty much eliminates a constructive conversation.

Bury me if you like, but I know the real secret is not how many times you fall. You only need to get up one more time.

Good Luck
Dave

[orson]

If part of your cost is your new van sell it. If part of your costs are 3000 sq. ft shop then shut it down. Get rid of the fat and price competitive. If not go into another field.

So what are you pricing at Brock? 25 bucks an hour? 15 bucks an hour? That's the going rate on craigslist right now so that must be where you're at I take it.

[Blue]

You said your too old for roofing and the insurance is too high.

You may not like my abrasive demeanor but the hard facts are the hard facts. Whether or not Uncle Fezters toothless grampa knew it or not.

I could tell you to not to worry, hang in there, everything will work out in time if you like, but that aint the reality of it in many of these guys cases.

[Eieio]

I agree with Brock to a certain extent and contemplating doing a bit of field work myself..

Sub out the larger jobs, do some of the finishes myself and keep it moving..

My 4 days in the field with a helper is equivalent to any skill guys 40-50 hours..

And that's with me putting in 30 hours a week, doing that I can bring in a lot more money than I do right now.

Even with a reduction in my Profit margin.. If I took of 10% of my mark up right now. I can land damn near every job I bid on from now to Christmas.

I got lazy and I know it. I started exercising about 30 days ago, my wind is up, 2-3 more weeks I am at 75% of what I use to be. That's enough to impress the average H.O. several times over..

You guys might know the difference they damn sure won't..

[Blue]

So what are you pricing at Brock? 25 bucks an hour? 15 bucks an hour? That's the going rate on craigslist right now so that must be where you're at I take it.
I have before. I've been at this since 85! This is my millionth recession.

Right now I'm more in Fez's boat. I have sort of a system (no where near Fez's good system tho) and the years of sticking to it have paid off.

I took last winter off on purpose and still had my best year in '09. I am still selling at premium (600 per day) with some added resistence but not much more.

In the recessions past I have had to work for food many times. and twice did a short stint as an employee for 12 an hour.

[DavidC]

Well I am too old for roofing, it's definitely a young man's business. But if it's what people are buying then it's what we are doing. Today I get to work in my shop starting a concrete counter top which is more to my liking.

I don't recall saying insurance was too high, in fact I said it was level so far. It was only mentioned as part of the reason I won't lower prices to compete with the guys looking for lunch or beer money. If I need to make less to survive than my feet will be on the ground is all. 2 years ago I wouldn't even consider a roof quote, but times have changed.

Good Luck
Dave

[orson]

One of my 2 biggest mistakes in the last 2 years has not been over pricing work but under pricing it. I could have done far less work that actually covered my costs and made more money.

That and hiring an employee when I had more work than I could figure out how to accomplish on my own. I'd have been better off financially turning some of it down and not hiring.

[Bodger]

The world turns on a dime. I just booked another week of handyman work, and a cedar fence and gate. I'm out the door to price a bath remodel, and I have another cabinet to build.

Not the rich gravy like the old days, but thick enough to dip my biscuits in whilst it's still hot! :grin:

[JasonW]

Agreed on having the Capital and a few of these guys do. I think its an issue of do you keep fighting the good fight..


"Choose your battles" would be my advice.

If you have some Capitol to get through a few boring moments, let the B/S jobs go and don't waste a lot of your energy on trying to win the job. Find those "Bulls eye" jobs that you know you can do well on and leave the rest alone.

I think the survivors will survive because they stick with what they do well.

[Bender]

I hear you. I'm down to my last million:mad:

[Eieio]

Tic tock.. Winter time is rapidly approaching, Whose got their game plan together..

Saw alooooooooot of people at the Marketing Webinar seems like a few guys are trying to get that game plan together..

Whats everyone working on now???

[Blue]

I saved up and took four months off last year. If I sell one my houses then I will prolly do it again but not getting many showings. I just hate going out in the cold anymore. If the house doesn't sell then I will have to do some construction work because the real estate goes south here during the winter.

Regardless I will blow the dust off the website and tighten some of the screws- plus the blog which is a major PIA for me to keep up with..

[orson]

I'm doing a fair bit of subcontract work.

It doesn't pay great but it's consistent and I'm going to just cherry pick good jobs, pressure is off to go after every crap lead with gusto.

Downside is I forgot how your legs feel after hanging 2 hour doors all day on concrete.

[Bender]

Unemployment is the highest its been in 9 months:surrender:

[DavidC]

Right now the number of quotes going out is up sharply and looking good. After the kids get back in school we usually start our busiest time of the year. That's the kind of repeat I can deal with easily.

Other than that I am in the marketing class of '10 and nearing the end of negotiations with Chris and Tim to make sure I get the highest grade on the finals. I think we have a deal if I can arrange the financing. Should guarantee work chases me then.

Kidding aside, that seems like it's going to be a kick ass session and it probably will help going forward.

Good Luck
Dave

[WarriorWithWood]

I just got out of "retail" remodeling all together. I'm tired of relying on the "boss" to find the work and getting laid off because it's slow. I started focusing my job search towards property owners and worked a dead end carpenter job till I found one. I finally landed the job I currently have, I won't ever have to worry about being laid off again. The company owns 50 properties (about 150 residences) and I manage the 30 man crew. I have work to do on 35 of the 50 properties and he's looking into building a 30 million dollar condo/retail project.

My future is finally secure where I'm at and I couldn't be happier. I'm in the process of learning the properties and every bodies name. We've rented a bus and we're taking the entire company to a Phillies game next week, that should be interesting.

I've done my fair share of struggling over the past 3 years, I almost lost my house and everything in it. If it weren't for family I'd be on the street right now. I'm just happy to FINALLY be stable again.

[Bodger]

I'm booking kitchens and baths and maintenance work. I just made $7K on a bath and only had 55 hours in it wearing a tool belt.

In and out. I'm not really missing the big jobs with the a-hole architects and people whining that the job is taking too long.

[Eieio]

Bodger have you picked out a box to move into yet?

So far it is look pretty good for us.. Keep your sunshine I am gonna cash these checks and buy me a electric heater. :laugh3:

[KennMacMoragh]

What are you guys going to do, to get you through the winter?

I still have jobs lined up, but they are kind of tiddly jobs I am doing by myself.

As for your question "What are you going to do?". Well, there's lots of things I can do to improve. As far as education, advertising, getting my financials more organized on my computer, figuring out how to bid better. I know what I need to do, the problem I have is finding the time to do them. So working on time management is the thing I am focusing on right now.

[Bodger]

Bodger have you picked out a box to move into yet?

So far it is look pretty good for us.. Keep your sunshine I am gonna cash these checks and buy me a electric heater. :laugh3:


Bastid. Don't fall asleep in front of that heater and burn your damned bald head. :laugh3::laugh3:

No, I won't need a box until winter of 2012. I'll build a wooden camper shell for the truck and live in that for a while until the tags expire.

I just talked to a GC yesterday that specialized in mid-century modern home restorations. He's out, upside down on his house, splitting with the old lady and selling off his gear. All insurance has lapsed, etc. Too bad, good talented guy, just had a specialized niche that dried up all at once.

The carnage continues.

[Mike(VA)]

Well, Bodg, there is no carnage with me. Doing 3/4 of a mil worth of work right now with another 1/2 mil in the wings. Got to sign it of course, but most of it looks good. One job we are doing is a burnout we were called about last December. Took him 10 months to get the insurance company to give him a decent amount. Out of the blue last week he calls and wants to get going. Also wants to add a 20 x 20 2 story addition.

HO's are taking a lot longer to get their designs formulated, make up their minds, and get going. Longer pipeline but once in, most fall into the hopper. I know its tough for some guys out there due to competition, small territory, or whatever but those that are hanging in there had better be doing some marketing.

As Rory said, if its tough now, its going to be a bad winter.

[Blue]

All that I have noticed that is different is the time peeps take to decide. Others have been mentioning this lately and I have been noticing this epidemic myself. As far as calls/workload there has been very little change here-good or bad.

I miss the good ole days when you would simply get a no or were getting other bids. Now you have to hold on to the estimate and change its oil and lube it for several months and still might not get a no.

[J F]

As you guys know, I've already closed the business I started in 2003. Late 2008/2009 ate my fvkn lunch...and dinner. (and if any tells me I don't look like I've missed many meals...http://i677.photobucket.com/albums/vv135/Jay123_bucket/Smileys/af5e074a.gif)

Figured I could weather 2009, got some surgeries out of the way, and was hoping 2010 would see a nice change...it didn't, at least not for me.

I kept up the advertising/insurance/lic, etc. for all of 2009/2010, but it was just a waste of a lot money, but you don't just jump out while on the roller coaster, you try and ride it out...usually for too long.

So now I'm back to starting up a brand new business (except for having great references).

Only time will tell if it's a great, or a dumb-ass move, but I think 12 months from now, I'll be doing fine...we'll see.

I need a drink.:idea:

[nEighter]

lookin good so far :)

[J F]

Yeah, the only thing I need to add is....clients. :mad2:

[Blue]

What type of business did you start up Jay? I somehow missed it, but then again most of my evenings are one big blur.

[J F]

Old: http://premierbasements.com/

New: http://www.craftsmencarpentry.com/

Basically I'll be going from 80-150k remodels to 1-10/20k? carp./cabinet projects.

[J F]

...and to a wife with a decent job and benefits next summer...which will be odd as she worked full time in the biz with me since '04/05. I think I'll be able to get used to it though. :grin:

[Bodger]

Well, Bodg, there is no carnage with me. Doing 3/4 of a mil worth of work right now with another 1/2 mil in the wings. Got to sign it of course, but most of it looks good. One job we are doing is a burnout we were called about last December. Took him 10 months to get the insurance company to give him a decent amount. Out of the blue last week he calls and wants to get going. Also wants to add a 20 x 20 2 story addition.

HO's are taking a lot longer to get their designs formulated, make up their minds, and get going. Longer pipeline but once in, most fall into the hopper. I know its tough for some guys out there due to competition, small territory, or whatever but those that are hanging in there had better be doing some marketing.

As Rory said, if its tough now, its going to be a bad winter.

Rain is the only consideration we have out here in the winter, so it's typically not a time when things get altogether thin.

I've got some things in the hopper, but financing, price driven market, and the overall concern about property values is really keeping things slow out here.

The business I get is still good dollar wise, but the jobs are fewer. I can keep going for a while, if things haven't picked up by June of next year, I'll be forced to close up for a while and do something else.

Mow lawns, or move into Modern's basement. That's been standing offer for a while now. :grin:

[WarnerConstInc.]

Modern spent the day in my garage.

[Bodger]

Hmmm...deleted posts....I do believe I have another fence that needs tending to.....:grin:

[naptownCr]

Modern spent the day in my garage.

Do you feel the need to pressure wash it now?

[J F]

Don't forget the fumigation...or potpourri.

[Bodger]

Don't forget the fumigation...or potpourri.


:laugh3::laugh3:

[Blue]

Modern spent the day in my garage.
Hiding from the law?

[WarnerConstInc.]

Hiding from the law?

Possibly....

[kevjob]

Looking good so far, 1 basement and 1 full gut bath on books for Jan and Feb next year, 2 baths on books for this month and next. Looked at a basement and 3 baths in the last week and half so hopefully get 2 and I can relax..... a little

[J F]

Good for you Kevin, too bad I can't refer the few calls I still get for basements over to you.

...or Absolute, of course. :grin: